Let me begin this post with a caveat.
I know.
I know that there are some Republicans who do not like Mike Huckabee. Whatever negative first, or in some cases second impression sank in, just can’t seem to be shaken. We’ve all read the rants, been pointed towards the ‘proof’ of corruption, cringed at the foot in mouth moments and grumbled at the ‘lack of experience’.. but there is one thing that cannot be denied. Huckabee connects… and the numbers tell a story that could make the GOP walloping supposedly coming down the line in November, not quite the disaster it might appear to be, IF Huckabee is on McCain’s ticket.
In the weeks and months since McCain ‘clinched’ the nomination of the GOP, a very telling trend has developed in the blogosphere and on the national scene; Huckabee has been able to hold onto his base without trying. They have managed to conduct a very effective grassroots operation to elevate his national profile, in a demonstration of the workhorse ethic that Mccain needs in his campaign if he is to have a prayer of getting the numbers out to vote that could compete with Obama.
In every primary in which Huckabee has been present on the ballot since the suspension of his campaign, he has secured ten percent or higher of the vote. As I write this he is on track for a second place finish on a loaded Kentucky ballot with 8 percent of the vote in the bag..
In every, yes, EVERY internet VP poll posted since the veepstakes have started in earnest, Huckabee supporters have mobilized to demonstrate their loyalty and support for their candidate, producing winning results, even on polls that were posted by hosts that clearly expected significantly different outcomes.
While this fact might be irritating to supporters of other individuals for the veep spot, it again speaks to the heart and commitment of Huckabee supporters who simply refuse to let him step away from the playing field. McCain needs that kind of fire and drive if he hopes to pull out the surprise win.
Huckabee supporters will treck through dark country roads in rural Georgia at two in the morning to plant Mccain/Huckabee signs, just as they did for Huckabee in every state that he won in the South on that surprise Super Tuesday. They will string together an underground railroad of trucks and vans shuttling signs and campaign parphanalia from one state to another, working on a shoestring budget with homegrown networks to tap into the base that brought GWB his win in 2004.
McCain cannot even begin to imagine the manpower and passion he would be plugged into overnight with Huckabee on the ticket.
But let us play devil’s advocate and say that Huckabee’s primary votes are an amalgamation of protest votes, and that his on line vp poll dominace could be the unscientific work of a few political junkies sitting around finding ways to play with the numbers and mess with outcomes. What further proof do we have that Huckabee could bring any realistic hope of success to the McCain ticket?
In two separate Suvey USA polls (sources below) conducted in the critically important swing states of New Mexico and Pennsylvania, and released on May 20th, the McCain/Huckabee ticket, along with several other McCain/VP tickets was pitted head to head against multiple variations of an Obama/VP ticket.
In EVERY matchup, even in the ones where McCain/Huckabee lost to Obama, the McCain/Huckabee ticket polled the strongest of all of the GOP tickets.
Of particular interest, given the recent Obama endorsement by Edwards, was the narrow margin that Obama/Edwards enjoyed in a race against McCain/Huckabee in New Mexico at 47/44 percent respectively. Where is the expected blowout?
When Obama is paired with a democrat VP with lower national name recognition, the odds get even better for the McCain/Huckabee ticket.
In New Mexico again, McCain/Huckabee trounces Obama/Rendell 48/36, and Obama/Hagle, 50/33 !!
Could this be an indicator that Hillary’s hispanic votes could be up for grabs in the southwest?
Granted, no one knows how high these democrats are on the list of possible veep picks, but the trend seems to indicate that Huckabee only strengthens McCain’s appeal against a ‘diluted’ Obama team in that particular geography and demographic.
Even in a blue state like Pennsylvania, not expected to vote GOP in the general, the McCain/Huckabee GOP ticket fares best against multiple Obama/VP combinations. McCain/Huckabee actually DEFEATS Obama/Hagle 42/40, and keeps things competitive against Obama/Rendell at 40/47. Even with John Edwards on the democrat ticket, McCain/Huckabee is able to keep the demcrats to within 10 percentage points, and that is before any campaigning has taken place to woo Hillary’s rustbelt support.
This is not to say that other GOP cadidates for VP were creamed by Huckabee’s numbers, in fact most other tickets, including those of Romney, Pawlenty and Lieberman polled within 3-5 percent of Huckabee’s numbers in most match ups, but Huckabee undeniably enters the contest with the deepest ready made base. The reality is though, that in this particular election, one percentage point could be the difference between winning and losing.
So my question for McCaniacs, and Republicans in general becomes, DO YOU WANT A CHANCE AT WINNING? Because if you do, the cold hard numbers say that your best chance..so far… is with Mike Huckabee on that ticket.
My argument to those who believe, (in my opinion incorrectly) that the GOP could win, but conservatism would lose with that ticket, is this. If it helps to think of them as placeholders until a ‘true’ conservative gets back on the throne, so be it. Just realize that if we open the doors to a democratic presidency right now, it may well be a decade or more until another conservative sees the door of the white house.
The voting public has been so burned by the GOP brand by this point, that they will probaly be willing to overlook a horrible democratic first term, laying the blame for a lack of success at the door of the party who ruled for the last decade.
If McCain/Huckabee can buy conservatives four more years to start the turnaround, then 2012 will bring a less toxic environment in which Mitt, Jindal, Huckabee and anybody else who wants to throw their hat into the ring, can make their case for the direction in which the conservative movement and the country, should move.
These poll numbers reveal that Obama is beatable..especially if we work hard to pick up Hillary’s conservative democrats in the big swing states where she creamed him. The reality is however, beating him will be harder if we’re not all playing for the same team. And that’s not fearmongering..it’s cold, hard, fact.
Just something to think about.
His Handmaiden
Sources:
Pennsylvania: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=162d4baa-59af-4ec5-9d9b-eb6e658e86c5
New Mexico: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bc4b7825-1ea9-4cf6-be2e-bbeb0f7c2d5f
The McCain/Huckabee brand: http://donklephant.com/2008/05/19/the-mccain-huckabee-brand/
Given how old McCain is, a vote for McCain/Huckabee could very well end up being a vote for Huckabee, which is a plus for disappointed Huckabee fans.
That’s a nice thought dracil, but we can’t afford to lose sight of the fact that we will be voting for McCain, not Huck.
If Huck helps him win and keeps BO out of the whitehouse that’s a reward in and of itself.
If JM wins, 2012 will be an exact repeat of this year…probably with the same players and a few more thrown in. Unless JM and Mike could make some hugely positive inroads to change the mood of the country, Mike could actually suffer by being a VP in a weak administration.
I am convinced that our main priority is to halt this tumble toward socialism that we seem to be in right now… by any legal means we have at our disposal.
We just need the time to regroup… we can’t let then get their foot in the door because the national mood is so sour. we’d never be able to force them out again.
Great article. I could feel the passion! lol!
I am one of those independents that will NOT vote for McCain UNLESS Huckabee is on the ticket. I will back an independent or write in Huckabee.
The Huckabee/McCain ticket really does make a lot of sense because it would be similar to a marriage. Huckabee’s strengths are McCain’s weaknesses. And there are many.
Also, I will sleep much better knowing that we have a representative fighting for us in the White House and someone with common sense around McCain.
One thing that is not voiced in the MSM is McCain’s (intense) dislike of the Christian right. With Mike there by his side, I am hopeful that continued erosion of our rights would be slowed if not halted.
On my blog this week, someone commented (I have had several people make this comment to me now) that McCain looks and sounds like he may be fighting dementia. I have noticed that he seems to get lost sometimes. Whatever it is, we need to have a strong VP to help McCain and step in if need be.
Well, 8 more days and I am on the road heading back to New Hampshire!
I agree with Dominique. I won’t vote for McCain unless Huckabee is on the ticket and would rather write in Huckabee.
In following the campaign, I’ve been very concerned that McCain is ‘pandering’ to the left of the aisle and it seems he has written off conservatives. Would he really choose Huckabee when McCain’s record shows him preferring Democratic positions? Maybe it would be better for McCain to lose, to endure four years of a bad far left presidency and then mobilize for a win in 2012. The way the Republican party standards and platform have slipped leftward, maybe we do need a good political kick in the backside.
Conservatives need to pursue leadership more aggressively, but in many local districts are not coming forward. We’ve had a lot of difficulty finding Republican candidates, let alone conservative candidates in our local area. (and part of the problem is that local city and county meetings take place when only ‘non-working’ people can attend - my husband is running for County Commissioner and desires to change that)
I’m hoping our very poor slate of presidential candidates will shake us out of our political apathy and malaise, but that kind of hope is only worth something we put effort into working toward a change ourselves.
Radiant
Huckabee has several problems that do NOT show in polls, especially within a margin of error with undecideds at + 15 % or more.
1. Hagel, Rendell, Sebelius and Edwards are almost certainly NOT going to be on the ticket.
2. Running with a VP that is a Baptist Minister would eliminate any chance of targeting Reverend Wright for McCain.
3. Huckabee’s frquent gaffes, using his bizarre sense of humor, like the Obama gunshot last week, are a potential one-time campaign killer for McCain.
4. Huckabee’s sermons are still around, like Wrights, if they haven’t been uncovered yet by the Dems.
5. His book will get leaked before the election. No matter what is in it, it is a ticking bomb.
In all seriousness, I can see that a portion of you are very committed to Mr. Huckabee. I will be honest and tell you that I remain fairly anti. Obama and Huckabee are the two candidates that I can tolerate the least. As BO is going to be the candidate, by placing Huckabee on the republican ticket, you will leave me voting Libertarian/Constitution/write in. I find it interesting to think how the state of Utah will vote. Or most of the Northwest.
Insert JC Watts if you like. Find someone else who isn’t Huckabee but you find acceptable, and I might be on board (not the biggest fan of McCain either).
Dominique and Radiant, please help me to understand why you will not vote for McCain unless Huckabee is on the ticket? I am a conservative Republican but my vote will go to McCain no matter who he selects as his VP. Why? Because I don’t want Obama (or Hillary) to win the White House in November. Obama will be a disaster for this great nation. When we consider the dangerous times we live in and the constant threats from Isalmic terrorists, we need a President and Commander-in-Chief who is strong, experienced and courageous. Obama is NOT than person. Add to his extremely liberal, left wing record and I just don’t get why all Republicans of whatever stripe have not come together to support our nominee. If Republicans start writing in Huckabee or any other favorite candidate, or even just sit out the election, what real purpose will that serve for our country? It is one less vote for McCain, while the Dems are galvanized for Obama. It is imperative that we prevent an Obama presidency, if possible, at any price. Even if we vote McCain as a vote AGAINST Obama, so be it. McCain may not be our ideal candidate, but he is the Republican nominee and I would rather have him in the White House than Obama any day.
Putting Huckabee on the ticket adds one more piece to the puzzle - humour. Both men can be pretty funny and use humour to diffuse situations. Their humour also indicates their strength in that they can smile in the face of the dirt being thrown at them (like McCain on SNL joking about age). That’s very American. Obama can’t tell a joke and is too earnest in his lecturing about what he will make us do to improve our own lives. Clinton, if she is the VP, can’t swing the funnies either, its embarassing watching her. I think being funny catches at least a couple of extra points at the polls.
Thanks for this well written article. I agree that Huckabee will help McCain get votes that others can’t help with. I will probably hold my nose and vote for McCain unless he chooses someone as his VP that is not a CONSISTENT moral values conservative.
Just the thought of McCain/Huckabee has us salivating and warming up our pom poms. McCain could be the most popular president in history and make his party so proud to put Mike Huckabee on the ticket with him. There is not a finer team anywhere than Senator McCain and Governor Huckabee. I will support McCain no matter who he chooses but my pom poms only go on if it is McCain/Huckabee.
McCain/Huckabee’08
Huckabee/Jindal’16
I’m afraid that in this election I will be voting for the least of the “evils”. None of the candidates thrill me, including the prospect of a McCain/Huckabee ticket. I will vote for McCain, though.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
McCain/Huckabee is a winning ticket in every way. With this combo, you please the entire Republican party, unite us, excite us, and get us to the polls! I disgree with the earlier post about Huckabee having been a minister some 20 years ago being a negative. First of all, the pastor thing with Obama had nothing to do with religion, rather with hatred for white people and for America and the fact that Obama is suppose to be a unifyer and it appeared he shared the beliefs of his church or he wouldn’t have attended for 20 yrs. I do not believe a pastor’s words have any business in the election and don’t feel that we did that with Wright/Obama. Even though we didn’t like what Wright said, he had the right to say them. Anyone who wanted, had the right to attend. What we question, is whether Obama has a right to expect us to believe his message of unity when his church teaches diversity and hatred….